Catenaa, Tuesday, October 20, 2026- Morgan Stanley said record earnings growth for asset management firms is mostly market-driven and is expected to reach $792 billion by 2030.
Morgan Stanley said in its paper with Oliver Wyman, Bluepaper, that global managed Assets Under Management (AUM) reached a record $159 trillion in 2025, up 15% year on year, with strong market performance driving more than 80% of the increase and continuing a trend since 2022.
The investment firm said that net flows expanded slightly to 2.1%, continuing the recovery from the low growth (0.5%) seen in 2022.
Morgan Stanley also projected global asset management revenues to reach about $792 billion by 2030, growing 7% annually.
Despite expectations for rising assets and revenue, the study warned that asset managers could earn less in fees relative to the amount of money they oversee. Average industry revenue is projected to decline from approximately 35 basis points of AUM in 2025 to 32 basis points by 2030, reflecting competition from lower-cost investment products and continued pricing pressure.
According to Morgan Stanley, AUM is projected to rise to roughly $247 trillion, or about 9% annually, by 2030.
“The forecast extends the industry’s long-term expansion, but its composition remains market dependent: market performance would account for roughly three-quarters ($65 trillion) of AUM growth through 2030, leaving headline AUM sensitive to the return environment,” Morgan Stanley said.
The report forecasts that net investor inflows will contribute annual organic growth of approximately 2.4% through 2030, compared with a 2.2% average between 2020 and 2025. Regular retirement savings, household investment contributions and demand for bonds are expected to support those inflows.
“Specifically, elevated short-term yields are making money market funds an attractive alternative to bank deposits and other non-managed cash,” the researchers said.
According to Morgan Stanley, the revenue mix is shifting more materially, as contributions from private markets are expected to expand from 35% of the fee pool to 39% of industry revenues by 2030, despite representing only 15% of AUM, as continued demand from insurers and wealth investors offsets softer fundraising in other traditional institutional channels.
“Solutions should also continue to outgrow the industry as the need for more customized, whole portfolio solutions increases across both wealth and institutional clients,” the firm said.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley’s paper said passive equity and passive fixed income remain among the fastest-growing revenue pools as low-cost exposures continue to attract assets, but together they are expected to contribute only about $30 billion, or 12% of industry revenue growth through 2030.
The firm said that active equity and fixed income will still generate more than four times as much revenue, underscoring that passive continues to take share but remains fundamentally a scale business.
