October 25, 2026 – Energy shares climbed to a 12-month high on Friday as the Dow lost more than 650 points. Supply worries keep crude far above $100.
In Summary
The XLE energy fund rose 2.60% to $69.33, its highest close in 12 months.
Chevron gained 2.88% and ConocoPhillips rose 3.55% on Friday.
The Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.21%.
EIA data put Brent spot at $115.22 on 20 October, nearly double its January low.
The EIA now expects Brent to average $105 in the fourth quarter.
Energy stocks rallied on Friday, while the rest of Wall Street ended the week on a weak note. The XLE energy fund rose 2.60% to $69.33, Nasdaq data show. That was its highest close in the past 12 months. By contrast, the Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16, according to FRED.
Why energy stocks are rising
Supply worries lie behind the move. The Energy Information Administration flagged the risk in its October outlook. It assumes Middle East oil flows stay limited through the fourth quarter. It also cites attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline as a source of price swings. As a result, traders treat each new incident as a fresh threat to supply.
Physical prices show the strain. The latest EIA spot data put Brent at $115.22 a barrel on 20 October. That is nearly double its 7 January low of $61.08. The spot price peaked this year at $138.21 on 7 April. Meanwhile, WTI spot traded at $107.89 on 20 October.
The gap between the two benchmarks has narrowed fast. Brent spot traded $30.39 above WTI on 13 October. By 20 October, the gap was just $7.33. In other words, US crude has caught up quickly with global prices.
A year of wild swings in oil
Monthly averages show how sharply the year has turned. Brent spot averaged $66.60 in January. By April, the average had reached $117.29. Prices then eased through the summer, with July at $83.76. However, the October average so far stands at $124.96, the highest of 2026.
Energy stocks gain while the Dow slips
Producers led the gains. Chevron rose 2.88% to $233.21, and ConocoPhillips added 3.55% to $150.80. Higher crude prices lift their cash flow, so investors bid them up. On the other hand, American Express fell 3.68% after its results and dragged on the Dow.
Tech shares held up better than on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite slipped just 0.21% to 25,955.34, after a 2.60% drop the day before. Still, costly fuel feeds into inflation, and that clouds the path for interest rates. The 10-year yield rose to 5.00% from 4.96%, Treasury data show.
Over the full week, the main indices split. The Dow still finished 0.41% above its 16 October close. By contrast, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.71% over the same span. Meanwhile, the XLE fund gained 1.60% for the week. In short, money shifted from tech toward older, cash-rich sectors.
What the EIA expects next
The EIA’s October outlook sees Brent averaging $105 in the fourth quarter. That is $14 above its September forecast. It also sees a $96 average for 2026 and $84 for 2027, up from $91 and $74. Notably, spot prices this month are running well above that path.
Next week brings a crowded calendar. The Fed meets on 27 and 28 October, and oil above $100 makes its inflation fight harder. Consequently, crude may matter as much as earnings for energy stocks and the wider market in the days ahead. Investors will also watch whether Middle East exports recover, as the EIA expects them to do gradually.
