Catenaa, Monday, October 12, 2026- S&P 500 is on track for a fourth year of double-digit positive returns in 2027, an achievement seen only three times in the last 100 years, according to BlackRock.
In its Q4 equity market outlook, BlackRock said early indicators suggest the S&P 500’s estimated double-digit earnings growth of 2026 may extend into 2027.
“As Q4 begins, Fourth quarters are typically the strongest quarter of the year for US stocks, and historical patterns suggest strength in the first three quarters more often portends a positive final quarter than a giveback of gains,” BlackRock Global CIO Carrie King said in the outlook.
BlackRock said that a longer lens shows five-year forward earnings growth estimates are higher today than at any point in the past 40 years, at 18% versus a historical average of 12%.
“The outlook is constructive globally as well, with Europe showing its strongest earnings growth in three years and emerging markets boasting a 2026 earnings growth forecast of nearly 50%, driven largely by AI beneficiaries in South Korea and Taiwan,” King said.
BlackRock reported that cloud revenue growth among major technology companies accelerated in the second quarter, with the growth rate doubling from a year earlier. The firm linked the increase to stronger demand for AI services, which it said could support further infrastructure investment.
According to BlackRock, cumulative AI infrastructure investment could exceed $10 trillion by 2030 as companies expand computing capacity to meet rising demand for AI services.
The investment firm said demand is evident across the economy as companies increasingly apply AI to target productivity gains, competitive advantages, and enhanced revenues.
“Our analysis finds the number of large-cap US companies citing AI related financial uplift increased by 77% over the past year, a trend seen in varying degrees across sectors,” BlackRock said. “This again suggests the spend is bearing fruit and fueling the next leg of the AI investment cycle among AI adopters.”
