Catenaa, Wednesday, October 28, 2026- China will lead the world in large language models by 2030 and lead in eight of 17 key industries, Bloomberg Intelligence said.
The analysis, led by Francis Chan, said Chinese firms will be competitive in other key AI-race categories, such as semiconductors and networking components, by 2030.
“The US and China are on track for joint technology leadership in AI by 2030, with neither country likely to achieve overall supremacy,” the report said. American models may maintain a narrow lead at the frontier, while “China’s expertise in software optimization leaves it well positioned in lower-cost AI implementation,” it said. China will likely close the gap in semiconductor tech without achieving full self-sufficiency.
Bloomberg Intelligence expects China to lead all three new-energy categories examined in the study, including electric vehicles and energy storage. The analysts also forecast China will lead global biopharmaceutical manufacturing by 2030.
According to Bloomberg News, China is already ahead in humanoid robot production and in some areas of shipbuilding, and has caught up with the US in research and development.
Analysts said these strengths will not save the economy from a slowdown. Bloomberg Economics forecasts annual GDP growth will average 3.6% over the next decade, compared with 5.2% over the past three years.
“AI and automation can mitigate pressure from a shrinking workforce and weaker property activity but are unlikely to reverse the long-term slowdown on their own,” the analysts wrote.
China’s AI companies are struggling to turn a profit on their products. They “remain locked in a race to the bottom, with profit set to remain elusive until companies adopt a more rational approach to pricing,” the analysts wrote, according to Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Intelligence said potential changes to the Hang Seng Tech Index could increase its exposure to companies involved in advanced computing hardware, AI and robotics, potentially improving the index’s growth characteristics.
International trade restrictions present another challenge. Export controls and barriers to overseas markets could limit Chinese companies’ access to advanced components and international customers.
The analysts wrote that such restrictions “are more likely to fragment the geography of its industrial expansion than stop it outright.”
