October 03, 2026 – A soft September payrolls report cleared a stubborn cap near $85,000. Traders now eye the late-September high near $87,450.
In Summary
Bitcoin hit $87,229 on Kraken on Friday, its highest intraday level since Sept. 23.
The move broke a cap that held daily highs between $84,451 and $85,604 for eight sessions.
US payrolls rose only 29,000 in September, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
Softer hiring weakens the case for another Fed hike at the Oct. 27 to 28 meeting.
The Bitcoin price jumped above $87,000 on Friday after a weak US jobs report revived hopes for easier money. Bitcoin touched $87,229 on Kraken, its highest intraday level since Sept. 23. By 15:40 UTC, Bitcoin traded near $85,400, about 0.6% higher on the day.
The move ended a frustrating stretch for buyers. From Sept. 24 to Oct. 1, every rally faded near $85,000. Daily highs stalled between $84,451 and $85,604 across eight straight sessions. Friday’s push through that band suggests buyers have finally soaked up the sellers parked there.
Jobs data lifts the Bitcoin price
The spark came at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. At that hour, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September. That fell well short of the 45,000 average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Revisions made the picture weaker still. July now shows a loss of 10,000 jobs, while the BLS trimmed August to 133,000. Together, the two months lost 60,000 jobs from earlier estimates. In addition, average hourly earnings rose 3.0% from a year earlier, slower than August consumer inflation of 3.4%.
The detail looked soft as well. Private employers added 46,000 jobs, while government payrolls fell by 17,000. Health care added 17,000, about half its 12-month average pace. Financial activities shed another 7,000 jobs, taking losses since May 2025 to 129,000.
For the Bitcoin price, the timing mattered. Before the release, the coin sat in a narrow range just under resistance. Therefore, a clear macro surprise was enough to tip the balance toward buyers.
Why softer hiring matters for the Fed
Markets care because the Federal Reserve is still tightening. On Sept. 16, officials voted 12 to 0 to lift the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. At the time, the Fed said job gains had “kept pace with the workforce.” Friday’s data makes that line harder to defend.
Furthermore, the Fed’s own September projections still leave room for one more hike. The median official saw the funds rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026, above today’s 3.875% midpoint. Those same projections put unemployment at 4.1% for the year. September’s 4.2% reading already sits above that path.
As a result, traders can now argue that a pause is more likely at the Oct. 27 to 28 meeting. Lower rate expectations tend to help assets that pay no yield, such as bitcoin and gold. Still, one report rarely settles the debate, and September inflation data has yet to arrive. That data could move the Bitcoin price as much as Friday’s jobs numbers did.
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch
On the charts, the next test sits near $87,447. Bitcoin hit that level on Sept. 21 before sellers pushed it back. A clean break would open a path toward $90,000, a level it last traded above on Jan. 28. On the downside, the old $85,000 cap now becomes the first area of support.
The wider recovery is already large. Bitcoin bottomed at $57,740 on July 1, its lowest point of 2026 on Kraken. Friday’s high sits about 51% above that trough. Even at that high, though, the coin sat about 11% below its Jan. 14 peak of $97,900. It also remains slightly down for the year.
That gap explains why some traders stay cautious. A move back above $90,000 would put the Bitcoin price at its best level in eight months. By contrast, a slip below $85,000 would return the coin to the range that trapped it in late September.
September itself delivered a 6.4% gain, with the month closing at $83,565. Most of that advance came after the Sept. 15 low of $74,892. Since then, the price has climbed about 16.5% to Friday’s high.
What could stall the rally
However, the rebound still faces real tests. The Fed raised rates only two weeks ago, and officials keep stressing inflation. A hot September consumer price report could quickly revive bets on another hike. Thin weekend trading can also exaggerate swings after a sharp Friday move. A weekly close above $87,447 would offer firmer confirmation.
For now, the message from Friday is simple. A soft labor market has cooled fears of tighter policy, and bitcoin has reacted fast. Whether the breakout holds depends on data the market has not yet seen.
