November 07, 2026 – Holders are locking in losses at a pace not seen since August, while hotter hiring data pushes rate hike bets higher.
In Summary
Bitcoin closed Nov. 6 at $75,742 on Kraken, 5.8% below its Nov. 4 close.
Investors realized $657 million to $703 million in losses per day over three days, per a CryptoQuant author.
US payrolls rose 165,000 in October, and revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September.
Kalshi odds of a December quarter-point hike rose to 77% from 65% in a day.
Analysts see $75,000 as key support, with $70,000 the next major zone.
The Bitcoin price slid below $75,000 on Friday as a strong US jobs report capped a week of heavy selling. Bitcoin touched $74,790 on Kraken before ending the UTC day at $75,742. That left it 5.8% below its Nov. 4 close of $80,441.
The drop followed a sharp rout on Wall Street. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 5.52%. Bitcoin slid 5.55% that day, its worst session since June 2.
Losses Pile Up Below $80,000
On-chain data show many holders now sell at a loss. Darkfost, a verified CryptoQuant author, said holders realized $657 million to $703 million in losses daily over three days. Weekly net realized profit and loss stood at minus $191 million. The losses are not yet at early August levels, he wrote, “but we are getting close.”
Meanwhile, buyers have stepped back on two of the largest spot venues. The 30-day average of spot net volume delta hit minus $28 million on Binance on Nov. 5. On Coinbase, it fell to minus $9.4 million. At the end of August, both readings sat near plus $64 million.
Jobs Data Lifts December Hike Odds
Friday’s labor data gave traders another reason for caution. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. That was well above the average gain of 48,000 over the prior 12 months. Unemployment edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%.
Furthermore, revisions added 84,000 jobs to August and September combined. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $38.00, a 3.1% gain over the year. Professional and business services led hiring with 70,000 new jobs.
As a result, bets on a Fed hike climbed. On Kalshi, a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8 to 9 meeting traded at 77 cents. A day earlier, the same contract sat at 65 cents. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct. 28, with two officials voting to hike.
Yields Keep the Pressure On
Higher rates tend to weigh on assets that pay no yield, such as bitcoin. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.86%, up from 4.84%, Treasury data show. Meanwhile, the two-year yield rose five basis points to 4.51%. That suggests traders expect the Fed to keep policy tight for longer.
What the Bitcoin Price Needs to Hold
For now, analysts watch two levels. Darkfost flagged $75,000 as the key line. If it fails, he said, bitcoin could fall toward $70,000, where a large cluster of investor capital sits. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, put support at $73,000 to $76,000 in a Thursday post. He also pointed to two strains: demand is falling faster, and stablecoin liquidity is shrinking.
That second point matters for the Bitcoin price. Stablecoins are the cash that traders park on exchanges before they buy. When that pool shrinks, dip buyers have less dry powder. As a result, rallies can fade quickly, as the Nov. 4 bounce did.
Next comes October inflation data on Tuesday, Nov. 10. A hot reading would likely firm up hike bets and test the Bitcoin price again. Still, the picture is not one-sided. Bitcoin held above $74,000 through Friday’s low and edged up early Saturday. A steady hold above $75,000 next week would ease some strain. A daily close below $73,000, however, would bring the $70,000 zone into view.
