Catenaa, Wednesday, October 14, 2026- Goldman Sachs expects AI-related debt outstanding to reach $2 trillion globally by 2028 as tech companies increasingly borrow to finance infrastructure expansion.
In its latest CIO report, Goldman Sachs Asset Management identified AI investment as a major theme in fixed-income markets in 2026, citing growing demand for capital to support data centers, semiconductor production, and other infrastructure.
“AI-related debt is becoming a larger and more complex part of public credit, set to reach $2 trillion by 2028. For investors, the focus shifts from the scale of issuance to the quality of the structure: what type of debt it is, what supports repayment, and how liquid and resilient it will be in stress.” Ben Johnson, Global Head of Corporate Credit at Goldman Sachs, said.
Goldman Sachs said AI capex comprises at least three distinct risk profiles that share a theme: hyperscalers, Leveraged credit, and off-balance-sheet financings.
Goldman Sachs said rising AI infrastructure spending is pressuring hyperscalers’ credit metrics, although these companies generally retain strong financial positions. The firm also expects increased bond issuance as technology companies expand their investment plans, potentially creating challenges for credit markets.
“We estimate hyperscaler IG bonds will account for over 70% of AI debt this year but going forward we expect data center and chip financing, which sits off- balance sheet and tends to be either IG or high yield, to claim a larger share,” Goldman said.
According to the investment firm, to date, just 25 data center deals and one chip deal carrying off-balance-sheet IG or high yield debt have priced, yet this segment could grow from less than $40 billion in 2025 to over $850 billion by 2028, when Goldman Sachs expects it to account for around 44% of total AI debt outstanding.
“We are cautious on certain hyperscaler IG bonds due to the technical headwinds,” the bank said. “Debt issued to finance data centers or chips can offer attractive income, at a premium to corporate bonds, compensating for structural complexity and illiquidity.”
According to Goldman, capturing these premiums demands disciplined underwriting across three dimensions: Collateral, Structure, and Liquidity.
