Catenaa, Friday, September 04, 2026- The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act remains short of Senate passage despite advancing procedurally, while prediction-market traders are assigning relatively low odds to the bill winning 60 or more votes.
Polymarket priced the probability of at least 60 senators supporting the legislation at about 25%, according to CryptoNews.
The market reflects traders’ expectations rather than an official congressional forecast.
The legislative record shows that the House approved H.R. 3633 on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 vote. The Senate has not passed the measure.
Congressional records identify an Aug. 8 cloture motion on the motion to proceed to the legislation as the Senate’s latest formal action cited in the report.
A cloture motion is a procedural step intended to limit debate and move the Senate toward considering a measure.
It does not constitute passage of the legislation.
That distinction has become important as commentary around the CLARITY Act has sometimes treated procedural movement as evidence that final approval is near.
The official congressional status remains more limited.
The measure has passed the House and entered the Senate process, but lawmakers have not completed Senate passage.
Most Senate legislation can face a filibuster, meaning supporters often need 60 votes to invoke cloture and move toward final consideration.
That makes the level of bipartisan support central to the CLARITY Act’s prospects.
The House vote demonstrated considerable cross-party support, with 294 representatives backing the bill.
Replicating that level of bipartisan agreement in the Senate may prove more difficult.
Disagreements remain over several parts of US digital asset policy, including stablecoin rewards, ethics provisions and the regulatory treatment of different categories of tokens.
Those disputes could affect whether senators support the current bill or seek amendments.
Polymarket allows participants to trade contracts tied to future events, producing probabilities derived from market prices.
Its CLARITY Act market suggested traders were skeptical that the measure would secure 60 or more Senate votes.
That number should not be interpreted as a statistical forecast produced by Congress or an independent polling organization.
Prediction-market prices can change quickly as traders react to negotiations, political statements and procedural developments.
Liquidity and the wording of individual markets can also influence prices.
The usefulness of the market lies in showing how participants with money at risk collectively assess the outcome at a particular moment.
The CLARITY Act would create a federal market structure for digital assets.
Its central purpose is to establish clearer regulatory categories while dividing responsibilities between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission.
The legislation would generally give the CFTC authority over spot transactions involving qualifying digital commodities conducted through registered exchanges, brokers and dealers.
The SEC would retain authority over securities and specified transactions involving digital assets through SEC-regulated entities.
That division is intended to reduce years of uncertainty over which regulator oversees different parts of the crypto market.
The legislation defines a framework for digital commodities whose value is connected to blockchain systems.
Trading eligibility would depend partly on whether the underlying blockchain meets standards established by the bill.
Among the considerations is whether a blockchain has reached sufficient maturity or decentralized control.
Issuers could also face disclosure requirements under specified circumstances.
These provisions are intended to distinguish assets that remain closely connected to an issuer from those operating through more decentralized networks.
The distinction has major implications for exchanges deciding which tokens they can list and under what regulatory regime.
The measure would create registration requirements for digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers.
That could give US crypto trading platforms a clearer federal licensing route.
The legislation also includes provisions covering market monitoring, recordkeeping and customer assets.
Registered digital commodity firms would be subject to anti-money-laundering requirements under the Bank Secrecy Act.
For crypto companies, those obligations would bring additional compliance costs but could also reduce uncertainty surrounding federal supervision.
The legislation attempts to establish clearer agency boundaries without completely separating the two regulators.
The SEC would continue supervising securities-related activity.
The CFTC would take a larger role in spot digital commodity markets.
Some firms could still fall under both agencies depending on their businesses.
That makes coordination between the regulators an important part of the framework.
The bill includes provisions intended to reduce overlapping oversight and improve information sharing between the agencies.
Coinbase and other large crypto companies have pushed lawmakers to approve federal market structure legislation.
Industry groups argue that the absence of clear rules has discouraged investment and driven some digital asset businesses toward other jurisdictions.
Supporters also argue that firms need predictable standards governing registration, custody and token classification.
Critics have questioned whether parts of the legislation could weaken existing investor protections or create regulatory gaps.
Those disagreements are now increasingly focused on the Senate, where amendments could materially change the version approved by the House.
Federal agencies may not wait indefinitely for Congress.
Crypto executives have suggested that the SEC and CFTC could continue developing digital asset rules using existing authority even if the CLARITY Act stalls.
Both regulators have already taken steps toward clearer treatment of digital assets.
Agency action, however, cannot necessarily create the same durable division of jurisdiction as legislation passed by Congress.
Rules established administratively can also be challenged in court or changed by future administrations.
The crypto industry therefore continues to view congressional legislation as the stronger route toward long-term regulatory certainty.
The next stage will depend on whether lawmakers can assemble enough support to move the measure through the Senate.
The 25% Polymarket probability for 60 or more votes indicates skepticism among traders, but it does not determine the outcome.
Negotiations could alter the bill.
Amendments addressing ethics rules, stablecoin issues or regulatory jurisdiction could attract additional support or alienate existing backers.
Even Senate passage would not necessarily complete the process.
If senators amend the House version, the chambers would need to reconcile their differences before sending legislation to the president.
For now, the CLARITY Act has moved farther than many earlier US crypto market structure proposals.
But its most difficult legislative test remains unresolved.
