Catenaa, Sunday, July 19, 2026- Prediction-market trading has surged to 27% of sports bets in the US during the World Cup, as Kalshi now poses a threat to the sports-gambling industry.
Kalshi, the biggest player, has repeatedly broken its own trading records during the World Cup, doubling the peak it hit just a week before the tournament began, during the New York Knicks’ dramatic playoff run, and running at nearly 10 times what it was at many points early in the year.
H2 Gambling Capital estimates that prediction-market activity was around 27% of all legal US sports-betting volume during the World Cup, up from 9% at the beginning of the year, based on public data from the tournament’s first month.
The comparison is imprecise because prediction markets and gambling companies calculate activity differently, and the sportsbooks have not yet released their recent internal numbers. But it illustrates the speed at which the exchanges are gaining ground.
In a stark sign of how the competitive dynamic has changed, Kalshi had more daily users on its phone app during the tournament than either of the two largest US online sports-gambling apps, DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Apptopia.
Less than two years ago, prediction markets were not allowed to offer wagers on sports games. Last summer, gambling executives were dismissing prediction markets as fringe upstarts that would be hampered by regulatory uncertainty.
The World Cup gave Kalshi and its main rival, Polymarket, a chance to showcase how their friendly federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has allowed them to launch an array of competitive betting products and successfully fight back the state regulators who have sought to shut them down in court.
The startups seized the global spotlight by launching aggressive marketing campaigns that made them ubiquitous in the round-the-clock coverage of the tournament.
While gambling companies have dominated advertising around previous marquee sports events, it was Kalshi that cut a late deal to appear on the digital boards alongside the playing field in every game during the latter stages of the World Cup.
Kalshi and Polymarket have tried in the past to differentiate themselves from gambling companies, emphasizing that they do not benefit when customers lose, while also making it possible to wager on economically important events like elections and the weather, which sportsbooks don’t offer.
But the tournament underscored the degree to which prediction markets have created financial contracts that mimic the behavior of many traditional gambling products, turning sports into the single largest driving force behind the growth of the nascent industry.
Some of the fastest-growing wagers in recent weeks were so-called combos, a prediction-market version of the parlays that have been hugely lucrative for sportsbooks, making it possible to take risky, low-odds bets on multiple different outcomes happening in sequence.
Federal regulators have also allowed event betting exchanges to serve customers from states where sports gambling is illegal, and to take in anyone over 18, unlike gambling products, which are off limits to people under 21.
The gambling companies have recognized the threat and launched their own prediction market products.
Some analysts believe they will ultimately be better placed to take advantage of the new opportunity with their broader distribution channels.
FanDuel’s stand-alone prediction market app has so far gained little traction, according to Apptopia data.
