Catenaa, Tuesday, September 01, 2026 – Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency exchange market could generate 4 trillion rubles, or about $46.4 billion, in trading during its first year under new rules taking effect Tuesday, according to Sberbank.
Anatoly Popov, deputy chairman of Russia’s largest lender, gave the forecast to state news agency TASS ahead of the new regulatory framework entering force September 01.
Sberbank expects annual regulated crypto trading volume could rise further to about 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87.1 billion, by 2029.
The estimates represent Sberbank’s projections rather than government targets and will depend on investor participation, regulatory implementation and the number of platforms operating under the new framework.
President Vladimir Putin signed the legislation in early August, establishing formal rules for cryptocurrency trading while maintaining restrictions on using digital assets for domestic payments.
The framework creates different access levels for retail and qualified investors.
Retail investors will be permitted to buy selected highly liquid cryptocurrencies, subject to an annual limit of 300,000 rubles, or about $3,700, through each intermediary.
Qualified investors will be able to purchase a broader range of crypto assets without the same limits.
The distinction could leave institutional and wealthy investors responsible for a large share of the trading volume projected by Sberbank.
The law also gives existing cryptocurrency exchanges until March 1, 2027, to comply with the new requirements.
Some provisions governing the issuance and circulation of crypto assets are scheduled to take effect Sept. 1, 2027, creating a phased implementation rather than an immediate transition across the entire sector.
Russia continues to prohibit cryptocurrencies from being used as payment for ordinary goods and services inside the country.
The rules therefore do not turn bitcoin or other decentralized cryptocurrencies into domestic legal tender.
Cross-border use is treated differently.
The legislation permits digital assets to be used in foreign trade contracts involving Russian residents and non-residents, extending experiments Russia began earlier with crypto-based international settlements.
That distinction has become increasingly important as Russian companies search for alternative settlement channels for overseas trade.
Western financial sanctions have restricted some Russian entities’ access to conventional international banking networks since the invasion of Ukraine, encouraging government officials and businesses to explore blockchain-based settlement mechanisms.
Russia’s Finance Ministry previously confirmed that some companies were using bitcoin and other digital assets in foreign trade under an experimental legal framework.
The new legislation brings more of that activity into a formal regulatory structure.
Sberbank is positioning itself to participate in several parts of the emerging market.
Popov said the bank plans to offer loans secured by bitcoin, ether and USDT once those assets receive the required approval from Russia’s central bank.
Crypto-backed lending would allow borrowers to pledge digital assets as collateral rather than selling them.
The bank could then extend conventional credit against the value of the pledged assets.
Such loans introduce additional risk because cryptocurrency collateral can decline rapidly in value.
Lenders typically respond by requiring collateral worth more than the loan and setting thresholds at which borrowers must add assets or face liquidation.
Sberbank did not disclose the loan-to-value ratios, collateral requirements or liquidation mechanisms it intends to use.
The bank said it has already prepared systems for working with digital assets and plans to adapt existing financial products as regulations are implemented.
Sberbank has also been expanding its broader crypto infrastructure.
It reportedly plans to introduce a cryptocurrency wallet within its Sber and Sber Investments applications by early December.
A digital asset depository is expected as part of the same expansion.
That would give customers the ability to hold and potentially trade approved assets within an ecosystem linked to Russia’s largest banking group.
Sberbank already offers some qualified investors financial products tied to cryptocurrency prices.
Since 2025, the bank has made structured bonds and digital financial assets linked to bitcoin and ether available to eligible investors.
Those instruments give investors exposure to crypto price movements without necessarily requiring direct possession of the underlying tokens.
The new legislation could allow Sberbank to move from offering mainly crypto-linked financial products toward providing services involving the assets themselves.
That reflects a broader shift in Russia’s approach.
Russian authorities previously maintained a cautious stance toward cryptocurrency, particularly for domestic payments.
The central bank has repeatedly warned about volatility, capital flight and financial crime risks associated with decentralized digital assets.
At the same time, Russian institutions have increasingly explored blockchain technology and regulated digital financial assets.
International trade pressures have accelerated that process.
The resulting policy separates domestic monetary sovereignty from investment and cross-border use.
The ruble remains the principal legal means of payment inside Russia, while crypto can operate as a regulated investment class and, under specified conditions, a tool for international settlement.
Sberbank’s projected $46.4 billion first-year volume suggests the bank expects considerable demand once investors can trade within formally authorized channels.
However, the retail investment cap could limit participation among ordinary users.
The market’s size may therefore depend heavily on qualified investors, corporations and professional trading firms.
Another factor will be how quickly existing exchanges obtain authorization and banks integrate crypto products.
Russia’s grace period gives current operators several months to adjust, meaning the regulated market may develop gradually rather than reaching full capacity immediately on Sept. 1.
Central bank decisions on which cryptocurrencies qualify for different products could also shape activity.
Bitcoin, ether and USDT are among the assets Sberbank has identified for potential secured lending, but final availability remains subject to regulatory approval.
Stablecoins could be particularly relevant for cross-border transactions because they combine blockchain settlement with prices designed to track conventional currencies.
USDT already plays a large role in international crypto trading and transfers.
Its use within Russian financial institutions would nevertheless depend on domestic rules and the risks created by reliance on an offshore issuer.
Sberbank’s forecast also shows how regulated cryptocurrency activity is moving closer to Russia’s conventional banking sector.
Rather than leaving trading entirely to independent exchanges, major banks are preparing wallets, custody, investment products and credit services around digital assets.
That could give regulators greater visibility over customer activity while allowing established financial institutions to capture business previously handled by crypto-native companies.
The first year of the new regime will show whether demand approaches Sberbank’s 4 trillion-ruble estimate.
If it does, Russia would quickly develop one of the larger nationally regulated crypto markets.
Russia has gradually shifted from restricting cryptocurrency activity toward regulating selected investment and cross-border uses while preserving the ruble’s exclusive role in domestic payments. President Vladimir Putin signed the latest crypto framework in August 2026, with its main trading rules effective Sept. 1 and additional issuance provisions due in 2027. Russia began permitting limited cryptocurrency use in international trade earlier as companies sought alternative settlement routes amid Western sanctions and restrictions on conventional financial channels. Sberbank, the country’s largest lender, has meanwhile expanded into blockchain-based financial products, including crypto-linked instruments for qualified investors. The bank is also preparing wallet and custody services. Russia’s central bank remains cautious about decentralized cryptocurrencies, meaning the emerging system combines regulated market access with limits on retail investment and continued restrictions on everyday crypto payments.
