Catenaa, Wednesday, September 16, 2026- Bitcoin must break above roughly $81,700 before its recent recovery can be considered a confirmed new bull market, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin gained about 24% over two weeks before the advance stalled, leaving the cryptocurrency trading between roughly $76,000 and $82,000.
The price was near $77,000 when CryptoQuant published its analysis Friday.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, said the broader trend remained constructive but Bitcoin faced heavy resistance from investors who previously accumulated coins at higher prices.
The nearest resistance zone sits between $77,100 and $80,200.
CryptoQuant said long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC around that price range during a 30-day period this year, creating a large concentration of potential supply.
The next major level is Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, currently around $81,700.
CryptoQuant considers that level particularly important because previous Bitcoin bull markets have generally gained momentum after the cryptocurrency closed above its one-year moving average.
A sustained move above $81,700 could therefore provide stronger confirmation that Bitcoin has entered another bullish phase.
Failure to clear the level could leave the cryptocurrency trading within its current range.
Another resistance level appears around $83,600.
That figure comes from CryptoQuant’s 3x Metcalfe valuation band, which estimates Bitcoin’s value using network activity, including the number of active addresses.
The model has corresponded with important price zones during previous market cycles.
CryptoQuant said the 3x band stood near $138,000 when Bitcoin reached its record high of about $126,000 in October 2025.
Its 2x band was also close to Bitcoin’s market price when the cryptocurrency first crossed $100,000 in December 2024.
A further resistance zone stands near $88,700.
That level represents the upper boundary of CryptoQuant’s trader realized-price model, which tracks the average acquisition price of active market participants.
Historically, the upper range has been associated with increased profit-taking.
The analysis also identified several levels that could support Bitcoin if prices weaken.
The first major support sits near $70,000, around Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average.
A deeper support zone appears between $62,000 and $65,000.
CryptoQuant said long-term holders accumulated about 476,000 BTC around that range this year, potentially creating stronger buying interest if prices fall toward those levels.
The report suggests Bitcoin’s broader market structure remains positive despite its failure to extend the recent rally.
The immediate challenge is absorbing supply from investors willing to sell as prices approach previous acquisition levels.
Bitcoin would first need to work through resistance between $77,100 and $80,200 before testing the more closely watched $81,700 threshold.
A decisive move beyond that level could then bring $83,600 and $88,700 into focus.
For now, CryptoQuant’s analysis leaves Bitcoin between two broad technical zones: resistance above $77,000 and stronger long-term support beginning near $70,000.
Whether Bitcoin can absorb that overhead supply could determine whether its recent rebound develops into a sustained bull market or remains another rally inside a broader trading range.
