Catenaa, Monday, January 19, 2026 – The proposed merger between mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore may require significant asset sales to gain regulatory approval from China, according to analysts and antitrust lawyers. The deal discussions, restarted for the second time in two years, could create the world’s largest mining company with a combined valuation above $200 billion.
China’s antitrust authorities are expected to focus on potential market concentration in copper production and marketing, as well as iron ore marketing. Analysts told Reuters that Beijing could demand divestments to ease competition concerns, particularly given China’s role as the world’s largest buyer of industrial metals.
One industry estimate suggests a combined Rio Tinto–Glencore could market roughly 17 % of global copper supply. However, other analysts at Barclays argue the share of mine production would be closer to 7.5 %, which might ease some antitrust scrutiny.
China has precedent for such conditions. When Glencore acquired Xstrata in 2013 for about $35 billion, Chinese regulators forced Glencore to sell its stake in the massive Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, a transaction worth nearly $6 billion, to secure approval. Regulators also imposed long‑term supply commitments to Chinese customers.
Complicating the merger picture is Rio Tinto’s existing relationship with Chinalco, which holds about 11% of the company’s stock and has interests in major assets such as Simandou and Oyu Tolgoi. Previous discussions included possible asset‑for‑equity arrangements to reduce Chinalco’s stake.
The deal’s strategic logic reflects broader global trends in mining consolidation, driven by rising demand for critical metals like copper, essential for electrification and AI technologies. But regulatory hurdles in China could determine whether this ambitious merger proceeds or stalls.
