Catenaa, Sunday, May 03, 2026- The energy shock from the Iran war may be casting a shadow over the outlook for the US economy, but the labor market has yet to register any signs of it.

Forecasters expect the April jobs report on Friday to show a solid 62,000 increase in payrolls, accelerating wage growth, a stable unemployment rate, and an uptick in labor force participation. Private-sector job growth was probably even stronger, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists.

That would mark not only an end to the wild swings in employment during the first three months of the year, but a return to something even better than the 2025 status quo, when monthly private-sector hiring averaged just 25,000.

The optimism stems in part from high-frequency data seen in recent weeks. The number of people filing new claims for unemployment insurance fell in late April to the lowest level since 1969, and ADP’s weekly measure of private-sector payrolls has been picking up as well.

Still, another report due Tuesday is expected to show it’s not entirely clear that the US is breaking out of the “low-hire, low-fire” trend that’s characterized much of the past few years.

Job openings in March are projected to be little changed in March from a month earlier.

“So far, the US economy has proven resilient to the oil shock, and some parts are even benefiting from the war; for example, trade data will show US energy exports surged into April.

One reason activity is holding up is that labor-market conditions appear to be stabilizing, maybe even improving. Job openings look broadly steady, with large firms still hiring even as small firms are not.” Bloomberg Economics said.

For now, Federal Reserve officials seem more focused on the inflationary impact of higher energy prices than the hit to growth, judging by their interest-rate decision on Wednesday.

Investors will monitor appearances by US central bankers for clues on the degree of concern about price pressures.