Catenaa, Thursday, December 18, 2025- Global prediction markets could see transaction volumes rise to $40 billion in 2025, up about fourfold from a year earlier, as mainstream distribution drives wider use, according to a new report from Foresight Ventures released this week.
The report is available here.
The report estimates total market volume grew to about $9 billion in 2024 and projects the user base could expand three to four times to roughly 15 million users next year.
Once limited to crypto-focused traders, prediction markets are increasingly tied to real-world events such as sports, economic data and politics, allowing users to trade outcomes as financial contracts.
Sports-related contracts are expected to account for about 70% of total trading volume, making them the main source of liquidity and repeat participation.
Despite rising activity, the market remains highly concentrated, with Kalshi and Polymarket controlling about 99% of global volume.
Foresight Ventures pointed to Kalshi’s integration with the Robinhood trading app as a turning point. The partnership, launched in August with NFL-linked contracts, gave Kalshi access to more than 27 million funded brokerage accounts.
Following the rollout, Kalshi’s share of the market rose sharply, while trading volumes and daily users expanded at a rapid pace.
The analysis said regulatory approval combined with mass-market distribution has proven more effective than crypto-native growth alone, especially in the United States.
Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange, enabling nationwide access. Polymarket is moving toward an institutional data focus after a major investment from Intercontinental Exchange.
The report said global expansion remains open, particularly for platforms offering local content and alternative governance models.
