Catenaa, Saturday, August 22, 2026- Bitcoin’s programmed issuance has pushed its stock-to-flow ratio to roughly twice that of gold following the 2024 halving, according to a new study comparing algorithmic scarcity with physical commodity supply.
The analysis by Slovak crypto service crypto4me estimates Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio at about 120, compared with roughly 59 for gold.
That does not mean Bitcoin is twice as valuable, twice as safe or destined to outperform gold.
It means that, under this particular measure, Bitcoin’s existing supply is growing at roughly half the proportional rate of gold’s.
The study identifies the 2024 Bitcoin halving as the point when the two assets diverged sharply.
Before the halving, Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio was around 60, broadly comparable with gold.
After Bitcoin’s block reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, annual new issuance was effectively cut in half while the existing Bitcoin stock continued increasing.
Stock-to-flow compares an asset’s existing stock with the amount of new supply created annually.
A higher ratio means yearly production represents a smaller share of the supply already in existence.
For gold, the World Gold Council estimates nearly 220,000 metric tons have been mined throughout history.
Global mine production reached a record 3,672 tons in 2025.
Those figures produce a stock-to-flow ratio near 60, depending on the precise stock estimate and methodology used.
Bitcoin operates differently.
New coins are issued according to rules embedded in the Bitcoin protocol rather than through mining companies responding to commodity prices.
Following the April 2024 halving, miners receive 3.125 BTC for each block before transaction fees.
At roughly one block every 10 minutes, that translates into about 164,250 new BTC annually under simplified assumptions.
Against a circulating supply approaching 20 million BTC, that produces a stock-to-flow ratio around 120.
The numbers expose a basic difference between Bitcoin and physical commodities.
Higher gold prices can encourage exploration, investment and eventually additional mine production.
The process may take years, but price can influence future supply.
Bitcoin’s scheduled issuance does not respond in the same way.
More miners can join the network when Bitcoin prices rise, but they compete for the same predetermined block rewards.
Additional mining power therefore does not cause the Bitcoin network to create substantially more coins.
Difficulty adjustments are designed to keep block production near its targeted pace.
That gives Bitcoin a supply characteristic physical commodities cannot easily reproduce.
Its issuance schedule can be forecast years in advance if the protocol continues operating under its existing monetary rules.
The study projects another major change after Bitcoin’s expected 2028 halving.
The block reward is scheduled to fall from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.
If Bitcoin’s issuance rules remain unchanged and gold mine production stays near current levels, crypto4me estimates Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio could approach 240.
That would be roughly four times gold’s current ratio.
The calculation is mechanical rather than a market forecast.
Bitcoin’s supply growth falls at each halving regardless of whether its price rises or falls.
Gold production, meanwhile, varies with geology, investment, costs and market conditions.
The study also makes an important concession about stock-to-flow.
It does not reliably predict Bitcoin’s price.
A widely promoted Bitcoin valuation model based on stock-to-flow gained attention during earlier market cycles but failed to accurately forecast prices after 2021.
Supply scarcity is only one component of asset valuation.
Demand, liquidity, regulation, investor behavior and macroeconomic conditions also affect prices.
Bitcoin can therefore have an extremely high stock-to-flow ratio while suffering large market declines.
Gold can have a lower ratio while outperforming Bitcoin over a particular period.
The measure also does not capture differences in volatility, market history, custody, liquidity or use.
Calling Bitcoin “twice as scarce as gold” is therefore accurate only when narrowly referring to the stock-to-flow calculation.
It should not be read as a broader judgment on the two assets.
Bitcoin’s effective scarcity may be even greater than circulating-supply calculations suggest because some coins are permanently inaccessible.
Estimates commonly suggest millions of BTC may have been lost through forgotten private keys, destroyed storage devices or inaccessible early wallets.
The precise amount cannot be established.
For that reason, the crypto4me study does not subtract estimated lost Bitcoin from its headline stock-to-flow calculation.
Using only known circulating supply creates a more conservative and reproducible comparison.
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The more interesting finding is not that Bitcoin has produced a bigger number than gold.
It is how the scarcity is created.
Gold is scarce because extracting additional supply requires discovering deposits, securing permits, raising capital and physically mining ore.
Bitcoin scarcity comes from software rules accepted and enforced across its network.
One is geological.
The other is algorithmic.
That distinction explains why Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio can change abruptly during a halving while gold’s normally moves gradually.
The 2024 crossover therefore offers a useful way to measure one aspect of Bitcoin’s monetary design.
But scarcity should not be confused with value.
An asset can be extremely difficult to produce and still fall in price if demand disappears.
The stronger case for the comparison is narrower: Bitcoin now has a lower programmed rate of monetary expansion relative to existing supply than gold has from mine production.
Whether investors choose to value that property more highly remains a market decision.
Bitcoin has a maximum programmed supply of 21 million coins, with new BTC issued to miners as block rewards. Those rewards are cut approximately in half every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. The April 2024 halving reduced the reward to 3.125 BTC. Crypto4me is operated by Bratislava-based Madison Six j. s. a., which received authorization from the National Bank of Slovakia in December 2025 to offer crypto-asset services under the European Union’s MiCA framework. Its scarcity study was published ahead of Bitcoin Infinity Day, observed by supporters on Aug. 21 in reference to Bitcoin’s 21 million maximum supply.
