Catenaa, Saturday, April 18, 2026-Bitcoin’s latest advance above $76,000 is showing early signs of profit-taking pressure, with rising exchange inflows and large-holder deposits suggesting traders may be preparing to sell into strength, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
The cryptocurrency briefly climbed above $76,000 on Tuesday, its highest level since early February, before easing back toward $74,800. The move was supported by improving risk sentiment, a softer US dollar and easing geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran.
However, CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno said the rally is now approaching a key level around $76,800, which aligns with the market’s realized price. That level has historically acted as resistance in weaker market phases because it represents the average cost basis of many holders.
When price approaches that zone, investors who previously bought near those levels often take profits or exit positions at breakeven, increasing selling pressure.
Exchange inflows signal rising selling intent
Onchain data shows a notable increase in bitcoin moving onto exchanges.
CryptoQuant reported hourly inflows reaching about 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late December 2025. Exchange inflows are widely monitored because they often signal that holders are preparing to sell or reposition assets.
The data shows a shift led primarily by large holders. Average deposit size has risen to about 2.25 BTC, the highest level since mid-2024, suggesting bigger wallets are driving activity rather than retail traders.
Deposits of more than 1,000 BTC to major exchanges, including Binance, also contributed to the spike in inflows.
The share of large deposits in total inflows has increased sharply, rising from under 10% to more than 40% in a short period. CryptoQuant noted that historically, readings above that threshold have often aligned with stronger short-term selling pressure.
Profit-taking cycle still not fully triggered
Despite the increase in selling signals, CryptoQuant said the market has not yet reached peak profit-taking conditions.
Daily realized profits are currently estimated at about $500 million. In past cycles, sustained rallies have often seen realized profits climb above $1 billion per day during more intense distribution phases.
That suggests bitcoin may still have room to move higher before hitting a more aggressive sell-off phase, but it also indicates that risk is increasing as price approaches key resistance levels.
If bitcoin continues to hold above $76,000 or pushes closer to $76,800, CryptoQuant said realized profits could accelerate further. That would raise the probability of consolidation or a short-term reversal.
Why the $76,800 level matters
The $76,800 zone is closely watched because it reflects a broad cluster of investor cost bases.
When market price approaches this level, many holders are effectively at break-even. That creates a natural incentive to sell, especially for short-term traders or large holders managing risk.
CryptoQuant’s Moreno said that this type of behavior has repeatedly capped rallies in previous market phases, particularly when inflows to exchanges rise at the same time.
If the level holds as resistance, the next support area identified by analysts sits near $67,600. That would represent a deeper retracement if selling pressure accelerates.
Macro backdrop still supportive
Despite the warning signals, broader market conditions remain relatively favorable.
Bitcoin’s recent rally has been supported by a weaker US dollar and improved global risk appetite. Equity markets and technology stocks have also seen gains, reflecting a broader shift toward higher-risk assets.
Easing geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran also contributed to improved sentiment across financial markets, helping bitcoin break above recent resistance levels.
However, analysts note that macro support does not eliminate onchain selling pressure. Instead, it can temporarily offset it, creating a more volatile trading environment.
The current bitcoin setup reflects a split market structure.
On one side, macro-driven buyers are supporting price through risk-on positioning, liquidity flows and currency weakness. On the other side, long-term holders and large wallets appear to be using strength to exit positions.
That divergence creates a fragile balance. Price can continue rising while inflows increase, but it becomes more sensitive to sudden shifts in sentiment or liquidity.
CryptoQuant’s data suggests the market is transitioning from accumulation into early distribution, although not yet at peak selling intensity.
What traders are watching next
Market participants are closely monitoring three signals:
First, whether exchange inflows continue to rise or stabilize. Sustained inflows would suggest continued distribution from large holders.
Second, whether realized profits break above $1 billion per day. That level has historically marked stronger sell-side phases.
Third, whether bitcoin can hold above the realized price band near $76,800 without rejection.
A failure to hold above that level could reinforce resistance and push price back toward lower support zones.
Bitcoin’s market structure in 2026 has become increasingly dependent on onchain analytics.
Unlike traditional assets, bitcoin allows real-time tracking of wallet movements, exchange flows and cost basis distribution. Firms like CryptoQuant use this data to assess whether investors are accumulating or distributing supply.
In earlier rallies, similar patterns of rising exchange inflows combined with price approaches to realized cost zones have often preceded short-term corrections.
However, those signals are not deterministic. They indicate pressure building in the system, not guaranteed direction.
The current environment shows both accumulation forces from macro buyers and distribution pressure from large holders, making the next move highly dependent on whether one side dominates liquidity conditions.
For now, CryptoQuant’s message is caution rather than reversal: the rally is intact, but the structure beneath it is becoming more sensitive to selling activity.
