Catenaa, Sunday, July 26, 2026- Robinhood’s next growth engine may not be cryptocurrency but prediction markets, according to investment research firm Bernstein, which has raised its price target on the online brokerage while forecasting a fundamental shift in how retail investors participate in digital financial markets.
Bernstein increased its target price for Robinhood shares to $160 from $130, maintaining an Outperform rating and arguing that the company is well positioned to capitalize on emerging blockchain-enabled financial products beyond conventional stock and crypto trading.
The report suggests the next competitive battleground will extend across prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities and blockchain-based financial infrastructure.
Bernstein expects prediction markets to become Robinhood’s fastest-growing business line over the next several years.
The research firm projects prediction market revenue will grow at a 64% compound annual growth rate through 2028, reaching approximately $1.7 billion.
Analysts estimate the second quarter of 2026 could mark the first period in which revenue from event contracts exceeds cryptocurrency trading income for the brokerage.
Robinhood’s CFTC-regulated Rothera exchange has reportedly processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since launching in late May, with FIFA World Cup markets accounting for the overwhelming majority of activity.
The report reflects a broader transformation occurring across digital finance.
For years, cryptocurrency trading served as the primary gateway connecting retail investors with blockchain-based financial products.
Today, investors are increasingly participating in a much wider range of digital markets that combine elements of traditional finance, derivatives, prediction markets and tokenized assets.
Bernstein believes the industry is entering a period where brokerages, crypto exchanges, derivatives platforms and prediction market operators will compete for a rapidly expanding revenue pool estimated to exceed $70 billion.
Rather than competing solely for cryptocurrency trading volume, financial platforms are evolving into comprehensive digital asset marketplaces.
The report’s most important conclusion is not the revised price target but the changing economics of retail investing.
Bernstein argues that distribution, rather than individual products, will become the defining competitive advantage.
As new blockchain-based financial instruments become increasingly commoditized, platforms with large existing customer bases will be able to introduce additional services with minimal customer acquisition costs.
Robinhood’s network of approximately 27 million funded accounts provides a substantial advantage as it expands into new financial products.
The company’s recently launched Robinhood Chain, built on Arbitrum, further supports that strategy by integrating blockchain infrastructure directly into its broader financial ecosystem.
Despite reducing its short-term cryptocurrency revenue forecasts because of weaker trading activity, Bernstein characterized the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural.
The firm lowered its 2026 crypto revenue estimates while maintaining confidence in Robinhood’s long-term growth prospects through diversification.
Analysts expect newer business lines including prediction markets, perpetual futures and Robinhood Chain to account for nearly one-quarter of company revenue by 2028.
The research also suggests institutional investors increasingly value diversified blockchain infrastructure businesses rather than firms dependent solely on cryptocurrency trading volumes.
Bernstein’s outlook points to an important evolution in digital finance.
The next phase of competition may no longer revolve around cryptocurrencies alone but around a broader ecosystem of blockchain-enabled financial products that merge investing, forecasting, derivatives and tokenized assets.
For Robinhood, success may increasingly depend on becoming the primary retail gateway to that ecosystem rather than remaining simply a crypto trading platform.
Robinhood has expanded from commission-free stock trading into cryptocurrencies, derivatives, prediction markets and blockchain infrastructure. Its regulated Rothera exchange enables trading in event contracts under CFTC oversight, while Robinhood Chain, launched in July 2026 on Arbitrum technology, supports tokenized financial assets and decentralized finance applications. Bernstein is among the largest institutional research firms covering financial technology and digital assets. Its latest report reflects growing investor expectations that blockchain-based financial services will extend well beyond cryptocurrency trading into broader digital capital markets.
