Catenaa, Monday, September, 29, 2025- Bitcoin has entered a historically late phase of its market cycle, with analytics firm Glassnode reporting mounting profit-taking and slowing capital inflows, signaling conditions similar to previous bull market peaks.
Despite a recent pullback from $124,000, renewed accumulation by short-term and new holders suggests potential for fresh all-time highs within two to three months.
Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s circulating supply has remained above the +1 standard deviation profit band for 273 consecutive days, second only to the 2015–2018 cycle’s 335-day streak.
Long-term holders have realized more profits than in most prior cycles, intensifying sell-side pressure.
Realized profit-taking volumes fell below levels observed during previous high points at $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000, while daily realized losses remain moderate at $112 million, consistent with historical local corrections.
CryptoQuant reports strong buying activity among new wallets, which gained 73,702 BTC in September, and short-term holders added 159,098 BTC, offsetting coins released by long-term holders.
Santiment warns retail traders’ eagerness to “buy the dip” may precede further downside, noting that short positions are insufficient for a major short squeeze.
Whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC continued accumulating, adding more than 56,000 coins since late August.
Exchange balances dropped over 31,000 BTC in the past month, reducing near-term selling pressure.
Market sentiment has turned slightly negative after Bitcoin fell below $114,000, but fear levels remain below capitulation thresholds, keeping the outlook cautiously optimistic.
