February 18, 2026 – The Federal Reserve is not rushing to lower rates. That much is clear from the January FOMC meeting minutes, released Wednesday.

Nearly all policymakers backed keeping the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. Only a couple of members preferred a cut. The consensus was overwhelming.

Why Did the Fed Pause?

The Fed had cut rates three times in a row, a total of 75 basis points. Then it stopped. Why?

Officials pointed to two key factors. First, inflation remains elevated. Second, the economy is still expanding at a solid pace. Job gains, while slow, have shown signs of stabilisation.

In short: the Fed sees no urgency to act.

What Has Changed Since January?

Economic data since the meeting has reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance. January’s nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations. A subsequent inflation report showed some moderation in consumer prices.

Both readings provide the Fed with some leeway. Policymakers can afford to wait and watch.

The Bigger Picture: Politics and Uncertainty

The Fed is navigating more than just data. President Trump has nominated former Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. That alone signals potential policy shifts ahead.

There is also ongoing scrutiny of current chair Jerome Powell. Markets are watching closely. Fed independence is quietly becoming a risk factor.