Catenaa, Monday, March 09, 2026- The S&P 500 would see the gauge fall as much as 10% from its peak as a result of the war in Iran, according to JPMorgan Chase.

Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan’s Head of Global Market Intelligence, turned “tactically bearish” on US stocks Monday as the Middle East conflict showed no signs of abating, sending oil above $100 a barrel.

A correction would mark a 10% drop in the US benchmark from its peak, implying the S&P 500 would drop to roughly 6,270 points, or roughly 7% lower than where the index closed on Friday.

Investors aren’t positioned for a drop, and “there has been a lack of extreme de-risking with positioning currently neutral,” Tyler wrote.

He said energy stocks were sold on a net basis last week as traders were “expecting de-escalation.”

Instead, oil prices jumped to over $100 a barrel over the weekend after several Gulf states cut oil production, raising concerns of a lasting supply shock and risks of stagflation.

For Tyler, these risks could quickly subside if the conflict isn’t prolonged.

“A definitive off-ramp to the conflict will end this tactical call as the underlying macro fundamentals remain supportive of risk-assets,” he wrote.

The awkward part for JPMorgan is that its own house was saying something a lot calmer only days ago.

On Friday, the bank’s analysts described the typical major geopolitical shock as a 5%–6% drawdown that gets clawed back within a few weeks.

They even wrote that there is “a tendency among macro strategists to dismiss geopolitics and oversimplify the response: just buy the dip,” before concluding that “the current episode with the Iran invasion is indeed a buy-the-dip scenario.”