Catenaa, Sunday, February 22, 2026- Nvidia stock price has been drifting sideways for months, rising just 1.7% since the start of the fourth quarter, slightly less than the S&P 500 Index’s 3.3% gain over that time.

The shares are barely positive for the year and in the bottom half of performers in the broad equities benchmark to start 2026.

It’s quite the comedown for a company that not too long ago was among the index’s leaders, posting triple-digit annual percentage gains.

Much of Nvidia’s recent lackluster performance has been driven by investors rotating away from mega-cap technology stocks amid rising concerns about the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on AI development.

But the stock market is also facing numerous external risks that are hanging over the shares.

The geopolitical backdrop is fraught, with the Trump administration threatening to attack Iran. Economic growth is slowing while inflation remains stubborn, according to data released Friday.

The labor market appears to be stabilizing after a soft 2025, which has traders betting that the Federal Reserve will be wary of further rate cuts.

And the Supreme Court just struck down President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which is considered to be a positive for US companies but also introduces another layer of uncertainty as the White House figures out how to handle the ruling and preserve Trump’s signature economic policy.

All of which puts Nvidia in a tricky spot as it prepares to report its fourth-quarter and fiscal-year results on Wednesday.

Investors expect it to trounce Wall Street’s expectations and raise estimates for the coming quarters. But there may be little the company can do or say to move its shares meaningfully higher. Nvidia’s stock has fallen after its last two quarterly reports.

Nvidia isn’t alone in this predicament. The Magnificent Seven tech giants, which have been the largest contributors to stock market gains over the past few years, have been treading water for months.

A Bloomberg index of the group has lost nearly 1% since the start of the fourth quarter, underperforming the S&P 500 in that timeframe.