March 15, 2026 – Token burns, stablecoin adoption, and real-world assets shape sentiment, but the direct price impact remains elusive as network activity triples.
Ripple’s former Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, outlined three forces shaping XRP’s price trajectory. His analysis arrives as XRP trades at $1.39, down over 60% from its January 2026 peak of $3.84. The conversation, posted on X, quickly drew debate from across the crypto community.
Schwartz identified RLUSD (Ripple’s stablecoin), real-world assets (RWAs), and XRP bridging as the three catalysts. He noted that these factors carry massive indirect effects. However, their direct price impact remains negligible. His candid assessment stirred both agreement and backlash among XRP holders.
XRP Market Snapshot: March 2026
| Metric | Value |
| Current Price (Mar. 15, 2026) | $1.39 |
| All-Time High (Jan. 2026) | $3.84 |
| Market Cap | $85.9 Billion |
| Market Rank | #5 |
| Circulating Supply | 61.2 Billion XRP |
| Max Supply | 100 Billion XRP |
| 24h Trading Volume | $2.83 Billion |
| YTD Decline from ATH | −61.5% |
Sources: CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Bybit (Data as of March 15, 2026).
Figure 1: XRP Price Decline from All-Time High (2026 YTD), Sources: CoinMarketCap, Bybit, CoinGecko
Token Burns: Marginal Supply Impact
The discussion began around token burning and its effect on price. XRP Ledger burns transaction fees automatically. Since inception, only 14.3 million XRP have been burned, according to XRPScan. That figure represents a tiny fraction of the 100 billion total supply.
Schwartz used Stellar’s (XLM) 2019 token burn as a case study. In November 2019, the Stellar Development Foundation destroyed 55 billion XLM tokens. That action cut total supply from 105 billion to 50 billion, a 52% reduction. The price surged roughly 25% within 48 hours, rising from $0.07 to $0.087. Yet the rally was short-lived. Within days, XLM fell back to $0.07, erasing nearly all gains.
Case Study: Stellar (XLM) Token Burn: November 2019
| Metric | Before Burn | After Burn |
| Total Supply | 105 Billion | 50 Billion |
| Tokens Burned | — | 55 Billion (52%) |
| Price (Pre-Burn) | $0.070 | — |
| Price (48h Peak) | — | $0.087 (+25%) |
| Price (1 Week Later) | — | $0.070 (Reverted) |
Sources: Decrypt, AtoZ Markets, CoinRivet (November 2019 historical data).
The XLM example illustrates a critical point. Even a 52% supply cut produced only a brief price spike. Critics like Nic Carter of Castle Island Ventures called the muted response evidence against the deflationary thesis. This precedent underscores Schwartz’s argument. Burns alone do not sustain long-term price appreciation.
RLUSD, RWAs, and Bridging: Indirect Value Drivers
Schwartz addressed three additional factors that indirectly affect XRP’s price. Ripple USD (RLUSD), launched in December 2024, has grown to a $1.38 billion market cap. It now holds over 37,000 wallets. RLUSD serves as a liquidity vehicle for institutional transactions on the XRP Ledger.
Real-world asset tokenisation on the XRPL has also expanded rapidly. The ledger’s RWA market cap surpassed $460 million in March 2026. That figure grew from near zero in early 2025. US Treasury funds, such as Ondo’s OUSG and commercial paper tokens, drive this growth.
XRP’s bridging function in cross-border payments also merits attention. Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) network spans over 70 corridor pairs. ODL processed roughly $1.3 billion in Q2 2025 alone. RippleNet handles more than $15 billion in monthly cross-border volume. Yet much of that volume settles in fiat, not XRP.
XRPL Ecosystem Growth Metrics
| Metric | Mid-2025 | March 2026 |
| Daily Transactions | ~1 Million | ~3 Million |
| RWA Market Cap (XRPL) | ~$0 | $460 Million+ |
| RLUSD Market Cap | $72 Million | $1.38 Billion |
| AMM Pools on XRPL | N/A | 27,000+ |
| Unique Tokens on XRPL | N/A | 16,000+ |
| ODL Corridor Pairs | 70+ | 70+ |
| XRP Exchange Reserves | 3.95 Billion | ~1.7 Billion |
Sources: Evernorth, Cryptopolitan, CryptoSlate, 21Shares Research, XRPScan.
Figure 2: XRPL Ecosystem Key Metrics Comparison — Sources: CryptoSlate, 21Shares, Cryptopolitan
Institutional Adoption: ETFs and Beyond
Seven spot XRP ETFs now trade in the United States. Combined assets under management stand at approximately $1 billion. These products launched in November 2025. They recorded 43 consecutive days of net inflows, a record for any crypto ETF category. Cumulative inflows reached $1.37 billion by early January 2026.
Key institutional players include Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and Bitwise. Goldman Sachs holds $153.8 million in XRP ETFs. That makes it the largest institutional holder. Meanwhile, Ripple’s own valuation surged to $50 billion after a $750 million share buyback.
US Spot XRP ETF Landscape
| ETF | Issuer | Fee (bps) | AUM (Est.) |
| XRPC | Canary Capital | ~35 | $373.6M |
| XRP ETF | Bitwise | ~34 | $309.7M |
| XRPZ | Franklin Templeton | ~30 | $189.0M |
| GXRP | Grayscale | ~35 | $148.1M |
| XRPR | REX Osprey | 75 | $96.0M |
Sources: SosoValue, Disruption Banking, Nasdaq, CryptoSlate (Data as of Dec. 2025/Jan. 2026).
Figure 3: US Spot XRP ETF Cumulative Inflows (Sources: SosoValue, Disruption Banking, Yahoo Finance)
On-Chain Activity: Transactions Triple
Daily transactions on the XRP Ledger have nearly tripled since mid-2025. According to Evernorth, payments now approach 3 million per day. This represents a sharp rise from roughly 1 million daily in mid-2025. The September 2025 low hit approximately 700,000 transactions per day.
The growth stems from tokenised asset settlement, stablecoin transfers, and institutional payment flows. Payment transactions account for approximately 55.7% of total XRPL activity. The network processes these at a cost of just $0.0002 per transaction. Finality occurs within 3 to 5 seconds.
XRPL Daily Transaction Growth Timeline
| Period | Avg. Daily Txns | Trend |
| May 2025 | ~800,000 | Baseline |
| Sep. 2025 | ~700,000 | Low Point |
| Dec. 2025 | <1 Million | Recovery Start |
| Jan. 2026 | ~1.05 Million | Rising |
| Feb. 2026 | ~1.3 Million | Accelerating |
| Mar. 2026 (Current) | ~2.7–3 Million | Near Record |
Sources: XRPScan, Evernorth, CryptoTimes, Traders Union.
Figure 4: XRP Ledger Daily Transaction Growth (Sources: XRPScan, Evernorth)
Price Outlook: Squeeze Points to Breakout
XRP has traded in a narrow range since March 10, 2026. Prices oscillate between $1.36 and $1.45. Bollinger Bands on the daily chart have tightened. This pattern often signals an imminent directional breakout.
Analyst forecasts for 2026 vary widely. Standard Chartered targets $2.80 under moderate conditions. Algorithm-driven models like CoinCodex project $1.70 to $2.00. Bullish scenarios from FXEmpire extend to $5.00-$5.13. The outcome depends on ETF inflows, macroeconomic conditions, and the velocity of institutional adoption.
2026 XRP Price Forecasts by Major Analysts
| Source | Scenario | Price Target |
| Standard Chartered | Base Case | $2.80 |
| 21Shares Research | Bull Case | $2.69 |
| 21Shares Research | Bear Case | $1.60 |
| CoinCodex | Algorithm Model | $1.70–$2.00 |
| FXEmpire | Strong Bull | $5.00–$5.13 |
| Changelly | Average 2026 | $1.51 |
Sources: Standard Chartered, 21Shares, CoinCodex, FXEmpire, Changelly.
Figure 5: 2026 XRP Price Forecasts by Analysts (Sources: Standard Chartered, 21Shares, CoinCodex, FXEmpire, Changelly)
The Bottom Line
Schwartz’s analysis highlights a fundamental tension in XRP’s market story. Network activity is surging. Institutional products are accumulating supply. Exchange reserves have dropped to seven-year lows. Yet the token’s price remains stubbornly range-bound.
The disconnect between growing utility and stagnant pricing may not last. Historically, on-chain activity tends to lead price movements. Investors should watch daily payment counts above 2 million as a sign of mainstream adoption. The tightening Bollinger Bands suggest resolution is approaching.
Whether that resolution is upward or downward remains the critical question for 2026.
Sources & References
[1] U.Today — What Moves XRP Price? Ripple CTO Emeritus Breaks Down 3 Factors https://u.today/what-moves-xrp-price-ripple-cto-emeritus-breaks-down-3-factors
[2] CoinMarketCap, XRP Live Price, Chart & Market Cap https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/xrp/
[3] CoinGecko, XRP (XRP) Price Today https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp
[4] Bybit, XRP Price Today, XRP Price Index https://www.bybit.com/en/price/ripple/
[5] CryptoTimes, XRP Ledger Payments Near 3 Million Despite Price Decline https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/03/14/xrp-ledger-payments-near-3-million-despite-price-decline/
[6] Crypto.News, XRP Transactions Triple but Price Remains Muted https://crypto.news/xrp-transactions-jump-3x-year-over-year-price-muted/
[7] Cryptopolitan, XRP Transactions Triple to 3M Daily https://www.cryptopolitan.com/xrp-transactions-triple-to-3m-daily/
[8] The Crypto Basic, Daily XRP Payments Approach 3M https://thecryptobasic.com/2026/03/14/daily-xrp-payments-approach-3m-despite-price-struggles/
[9] Traders Union, XRP Network Usage Rises Sharply https://tradersunion.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/show/1696084-xrp-network-usage-rises/
[10] Disruption Banking, XRP ETF Boom: $1.4B Inflows in Early 2026 https://www.disruptionbanking.com/2026/01/06/xrp-etf-boom-1-4b-inflows-in-early-2026/
[11] Yahoo Finance, XRP ETF Inflows Hit $1.37 Billion https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xrp-etf-inflows-hit-1-213159144.html
[12] Nasdaq, The Hottest Trade of 2026 Isn’t Bitcoin , It’s XRP ETFs https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hottest-trade-2026-isnt-bitcoin-its-xrp-etfs
[13] 24/7 Wall St., XRP ETFs Start 2026 With $1.3B https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/01/05/xrp-etfs-start-2026-with-1-3b-can-institutional-demand-push-price-to-4-by-year-end/
[14] 21Shares Research, XRP 2026 Outlook https://www.21shares.com/en-eu/research/xrp-2026-outlook-regulatory-resolution-institutional-rails-and-cross-border-settlement
[15] CryptoSlate, XRP ETFs Are Booming, But Payment Layer Matters More https://cryptoslate.com/xrp-etfs-are-booming-but-a-quiet-15-billion-payment-layer-matters-more-than-the-price/
[16] XRP Insights, XRP ETF Tracker https://xrp-insights.com/
[17] Decrypt, Stellar (XLM) Price Rockets 25% as Foundation Burns 55 Billion Tokens https://decrypt.co/11077/stellar-xlm-price-up-25-percent-55-billion-tokens-burned
[18] Decrypt, Stellar (XLM) Price Continues to Slide Post Token Burn https://decrypt.co/11424/stellar-xlm-price-continues-to-slide-post-controversial-token-burn
[19] CoinRivet, Does Stellar’s 55bn Token Burn Disprove the Deflationary Thesis? https://coinrivet.com/stellar-token-burn/
[20] AtoZ Markets, 55 Billion Stellar Token Burn Cuts XLM Supply by 50% https://atozmarkets.com/news/why-stellar-burns-xlm-tokens/
[21] Changelly, XRP (XRP) Price Prediction 2026–2040 https://changelly.com/blog/ripple-xrp-price-prediction/
[22] Nasdaq / The Motley Fool, Every XRP Investor Should Keep an Eye on This Number in 2026 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/every-xrp-investor-should-keep-eye-number-2026
[23] 24/7 Wall St., When Will BlackRock File an XRP ETF? https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/02/24/when-will-blackrock-file-an-xrp-etf-one-insider-sees-late-2026-as-the-target/
[24] Bloomberg (via CoinCentral), Ripple’s $50B Buyback Valuation https://coincentral.com/xrp-price-prediction-2026-ripples-50b-buyback-lifts-confidence-but-one-presale-offers-what-xrps-market-cap-cannot/
