Catenaa, Sunday, October 12, 2025-Investment firm VanEck projects Bitcoin could capture half of gold’s market capitalization, implying a potential price of $644,000 per BTC if realized.
The cryptocurrency’s market cap currently stands at about $2.48 trillion, up 12% over the past month.
VanEck’s bullish thesis positions Bitcoin as a digital analogue to gold, citing adoption in emerging markets, Layer 2 scalability solutions, and growing institutional participation.
Analysts caution the target may take five to ten years, reflecting a steadier growth trajectory compared with past exponential cycles. Derek Lim, head of research at Caladan, said Bitcoin is likely to reach 30–50% of gold’s market value by 2035, putting it in the $300,000–$500,000 range, before possibly achieving parity later.
Gold has outperformed Bitcoin in the near term, returning 49% year-to-date versus Bitcoin’s 31%. Analysts highlight the “debasement trade” narrative pairing the two assets, suggesting that Bitcoin could eventually serve as a complementary store of value to gold.
VanEck also outlined a long-term scenario in which Bitcoin could reach a total market cap of $61 trillion by 2050, with the Layer 2 ecosystem contributing an additional $7.6 trillion.
Current cycle dynamics differ from prior ones, as institutional inflows via spot ETFs are compressing volatility and supporting steadier gains, delaying the historical 500–550 day post-halving peak.
Analysts expect Bitcoin’s growth to extend well beyond that window, reinforced by macroeconomic tailwinds and continued adoption.
