February 23, 2026 – Stablecoin issuers are on track to become major buyers of U.S. Treasury bills. That is the striking conclusion from Standard Chartered’s latest digital assets report.
Analysts Geoff Kendrick and John Davies project that the stablecoin market cap will reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028. Today, it sits at roughly $309 billion. That near-sevenfold jump carries significant implications for U.S. debt markets.
Why T-Bills? The Reserve Backing Logic
Stablecoins need reserves. Issuers typically hold short-dated government securities to back their tokens. As issuance scales, so does demand for T-bills.
Standard Chartered estimates that stablecoin growth alone will generate $800 billion to $1 trillion in new T-bill demand through 2028. Add expected Fed purchases and mortgage-backed securities reinvestment, and total new demand hits roughly $2.2 trillion.
“T-bills could become too scarce if no action is taken.”
— Standard Chartered, Kendrick & Davies
A Structural Shift, Not a Blip
Stablecoin growth has slowed recently. Markets are soft, and regulation is in flux following the GENIUS Act. But Kendrick and Davies call the slowdown “cyclical rather than structural.”
Their longer-term $2 trillion forecast stands. It also builds on an earlier projection: $500 billion in bank deposits could migrate into stablecoins by 2028.
Could This Move the Yield Curve?
Analysts are divided on the macro impact. Kevin Lee of Gate.io argues the effect is “marginal” unless scale becomes truly substantial. But at $2 trillion, roughly 30% of the T-bill market, scale may no longer be a question.
Coin Bureau’s Nic Puckrin flags a different risk: liquidity concentration. If issuers sell T-bills in a stress environment, they could amplify market volatility. So far, buffers exist. But a $2 trillion market tests them.
The U.S. Treasury is already watching. Its February Quarterly Refunding Announcement flagged growing private-sector demand for T-bills. A structural shift in who holds short-term U.S. debt may be underway.
