Catenaa, Wednesday, March 25, 2026- Mizuho analysts have cut their price target for Gemini Space Station shares by more than half to $12 from $26, citing a sharp slowdown in cryptocurrency trading volumes that is weighing on the company’s core exchange business despite growth in its credit card segment.
The downgrade reflects weaker expectations for crypto market activity and lower transaction volumes across Gemini’s platform. Shares recently fell to a record low of $5.50 before stabilizing, with analysts noting that current levels already reflect many of the company’s operational and market challenges.
Context
In a note to clients, analysts lowered their 2027 revenue forecasts by 24%, pointing to declining trading activity as the main drag on performance. Gemini’s exchange business remains closely tied to price movements in major cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether, both of which have seen periods of volatility and reduced trading interest following earlier market highs.
Trading volumes on the platform have dropped sharply from peaks seen in 2025, with both institutional and retail activity slowing. Institutional trading, once a dominant contributor to revenue, has declined as arbitrage opportunities narrowed after the introduction of exchange-traded products. Retail activity has proven more stable but has not been enough to offset the broader decline.
At the same time, Gemini has been shifting its revenue mix. Services revenue, which includes credit card fees, custody and interest income, is expected to rise to about 43% of total revenue, up from earlier projections. This reflects a broader industry trend where exchanges are diversifying away from reliance on trading fees.
Implications
Gemini’s credit card has emerged as a key area of growth. The product processed about $1.2 billion in transactions during 2025 and generated $33 million in revenue, offering users rewards linked to cryptocurrency. Adoption has increased among both retail and institutional clients, helping to create a more stable revenue stream.
The company has also implemented cost-cutting measures to address declining revenues. Workforce reductions and exits from several international markets are expected to lower expenses over time, with management targeting improved margins once restructuring costs subside.
However, the company continues to face legal and operational pressures. A lawsuit filed by investors alleges inadequate disclosure related to strategic changes, layoffs and leadership departures. Combined with falling trading volumes, these issues have contributed to uncertainty around the company’s near-term outlook.
The broader crypto exchange sector is undergoing similar shifts. Many platforms are focusing on services such as custody, staking and payments to offset volatility in trading revenue. Analysts say Gemini’s ability to execute this transition will be critical in determining its long-term performance.
Expert views
Market analysts remain cautious about the pace of recovery. While diversification efforts are seen as necessary, they may take time to fully offset declines in trading income. The outlook for crypto markets, including price trends and investor participation, will continue to play a central role in Gemini’s performance.
Some analysts note that valuation levels have already adjusted significantly, suggesting limited downside if conditions stabilize. Others warn that continued weakness in trading activity or delays in cost reductions could prolong pressure on earnings.
Background
Gemini operates in a competitive landscape dominated by larger global exchanges, with market share spread across several major platforms. The company has focused on regulatory compliance and institutional services as differentiators, but has faced challenges in maintaining growth amid changing market conditions.
The cryptocurrency market itself has entered a more subdued phase after rapid expansion in prior years. Lower volatility, reduced speculative trading and shifting investor behavior have all contributed to declining exchange volumes.
As the industry evolves, companies like Gemini are adapting their strategies to focus on more predictable revenue sources. Whether these efforts can offset the cyclical nature of trading remains a key question for investors and analysts.
