Catenaa, Tuesday, October 07, 2025-JPMorgan analysts forecast bitcoin could climb to $165,000 by year-end, citing strong retail demand and its undervaluation compared with gold.
The bank’s team, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted value now shows a gap with gold.
The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has dropped below 2.0, meaning bitcoin consumes only 1.85 times more risk capital than gold.
To match gold’s roughly $6 trillion in private investment, bitcoin’s $2.3 trillion market capitalization would need to rise about 42 percent, implying a price of $165,000.
The valuation gap has shifted sharply. At the end of 2024, analysts considered bitcoin overpriced by $36,000. They now say it trades about $46,000 below parity with gold on adjusted terms.
The shift comes as more investors engage in what JPMorgan calls the “debasement trade,” channeling funds into alternative assets such as bitcoin and gold amid concerns over deficits, inflation, central bank credibility, and weakening currencies.
Retail investors have driven much of the activity through exchange-traded funds, while institutional participation in CME futures has lagged behind.
In recent months, gold ETFs have seen stronger inflows, but analysts argued bitcoin looks more attractive in relative terms. In August, JPMorgan projected bitcoin would reach $126,000 by year-end. Rising gold prices since then pushed the bank to raise its target to $165,000.
Bitcoin was trading near $119,000 on Thursday, as more firms issued bullish forecasts, with some estimates pointing toward $200,000.
