Catenaa, Thursday, February 05, 2026-JPMorgan analysts said bitcoin futures appear oversold while gold and silver futures have moved into overbought territory, reflecting a shift by investors toward precious metals and away from digital assets.
In a report released Wednesday, the bank said retail investors favored both bitcoin and gold exchange traded funds through much of 2025, but that trend changed late in the year.
Bitcoin ETF inflows stalled around August and turned negative in the fourth quarter, while gold ETF inflows accelerated and reached nearly $60 billion by year end.
Silver ETFs also saw most of their inflows during the final quarter of 2025, coinciding with bitcoin ETF outflows. The analysts said the pattern points to a rotation by retail investors out of bitcoin and into precious metals.
Institutional positioning has followed a similar path. JPMorgan’s measure of futures positioning based on CME open interest showed rising long exposure to silver in late 2025 and early 2026, driven largely by hedge funds. Gold futures have also seen sustained long positioning over the past year.
Bitcoin futures have not recorded a comparable buildup.
Momentum indicators used to track trend following traders show gold futures in overbought territory and silver futures well above that level, while bitcoin futures screen as oversold.
The analysts said this divergence raises the risk of near term pullbacks in gold and silver, a trend already seen after the report’s release.
Despite near term risks, JPMorgan remains constructive on gold over a longer horizon. The bank said rising allocations by private investors and central banks could push gold prices into a theoretical range of $8,000 to $8,500 in the coming years.
