Catenaa, Friday, December 26, 2025- Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant says a bitcoin bear market has begun, citing weakening demand and slowing growth as the primary signals.
The firm reports that three major demand waves since 2023, driven by the US spot ETF launch, the presidential election outcome, and bitcoin treasury company activity, have largely been absorbed, leaving limited support for prices.
CryptoQuant forecasts bitcoin could decline toward $70,000, with a deeper drop to $56,000 possible if momentum fails to return. \
The firm notes the current downturn began around mid-November, following the largest crypto liquidation event in history on October 10.
US spot ETFs turned into net sellers in the fourth quarter, offloading about 24,000 BTC, reversing last year’s trend.
Address cohorts holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, including ETFs and treasury companies, are also below trend, reflecting weaker demand.
Derivatives markets show fading risk appetite, with perpetual futures funding rates falling to their lowest since December 2023.
Bitcoin has slipped below its 365-day moving average, a long-term technical indicator signaling bear market conditions.
CryptoQuant emphasizes that demand cycles, rather than halving events, drive bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Declining demand growth historically precedes bear markets regardless of supply-side factors or past price movements.
Bitcoin is now trading in the region of $87,000.
The bearish outlook contrasts with several bullish forecasts, including Citigroup’s $143,000 base-case target and Bitwise’s projection of new all-time highs in 2026.
Standard Chartered has lowered its 2026 target to $150,000, while JPMorgan maintains an upside case near $170,000.
