Catenaa, Friday, January 09, 2026-Analysts are divided on the growth prospects of Coinbase and Gemini as both crypto exchanges push beyond spot trading into payments, derivatives, and other financial services.
William Blair maintained an outperform rating on Coinbase, saying the market undervalues the exchange’s expansion into equities, prediction markets, crypto futures, decentralized trading, and white-label stablecoins. Analysts noted that while near-term spot trading volumes have softened, Coinbase’s non-trading revenue could provide more stable growth over time.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Coinbase to a buy rating, citing its increasing mix of infrastructure and non-trading income as a buffer against crypto market swings. The firm warned, however, that competition and sensitivity to interest rates could continue to pressure margins in 2026.
Gemini has also pursued diversification, launching a predictions market and expanding its spending card operations. Mizuho Securities highlighted that roughly half of Gemini cardholders are now active on the exchange, creating what the firm described as a “flywheel effect.” Mizuho maintained an outperform rating on Gemini, pointing to user growth, international expansion, and its all-in-one app, while noting risks from market volatility and regulation.
Mizuho surveyed retail and institutional investors and found sentiment toward crypto-native exchanges split, with fintech stocks generally preferred for 2026. The survey indicated sharp divergence in expectations for Coinbase and Gemini, with some investors projecting strong performance while others view them as potential underperformers.
Investors and analysts broadly agree that success will hinge on execution of diversification strategies and stable revenue streams outside spot trading, with the ability to withstand crypto market swings remaining a key test for both exchanges.
