Catenaa, Wednesday, November 19, 2025- Circle reported $740 million in third-quarter revenue and $166 million in adjusted EBITDA last Wednesday, surpassing analyst estimates by 5% and 26%, even as the stock fell 12.2%.
Bernstein analysts said the results show the stablecoin issuer’s fundamentals remain solid despite concerns over interest-rate cuts and rising competition from rivals like Stripe.
Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, maintained an outperform rating and $230 price target, citing growing USDC market share, improving profitability, and momentum for Circle’s Arc blockchain and Circle Payments Network.
Analysts noted that recent share price weakness reflects market fears rather than structural issues.
USDC supply rose 20% quarter-over-quarter to $73.7 billion, boosting market share to 29%, while balances held directly on Circle’s platform climbed to 14% from 10%.
Reserve income increased 12% to $711 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 700 basis points to 57%.
Bernstein highlighted Circle’s liquidity edge over emerging competitors, noting that major players like PayPal and Ripple have struggled to launch new stablecoins.
The firm also said potential policy rate declines to 2% by 2027 would leave Circle’s stock trading at a 21 to 29 times enterprise value/EBITDA multiple, assuming annual revenue growth of 20% and EBITDA growth of 33%.
Circle’s network expansion includes a public testnet for the Arc blockchain with over 100 participants and a Circle Payments Network now spanning eight countries.
The company also said it is exploring a native token for Arc beyond USDC, signaling continued innovation in its blockchain ecosystem.
Circle’s third-quarter performance suggests the company is positioned to sustain USDC growth and navigate competitive and market uncertainties.
