Catenaa, Tuesday, March 03, 2026- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission plans to begin formal rulemaking on prediction markets, signaling a stronger federal role in overseeing event contracts as disputes with states intensify.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig said Tuesday at the Milken Institute Future of Finance event that the agency would issue guidance and launch an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking in the near future.
The effort will outline standards for which contracts can be self-certified and how new products should be evaluated.
Selig said the commission is not relying solely on court battles to assert its authority.
Over the past month, states including Nevada and Tennessee have challenged prediction market platforms, arguing the offerings violate local gaming and gambling laws, especially in sports-related markets.
Prediction market operators counter that Congress granted the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Last month, the agency filed an amicus brief supporting Crypto.com in a dispute with Nevada, asserting federal oversight of such derivatives.
The agency’s stance marks a shift from the Biden-era commission led by Rostin Behnam.
In 2024, the CFTC proposed restrictions on event contracts tied to political contests, gaming, war, terrorism and assassination, citing public interest concerns.
That proposal was withdrawn earlier this year.
Selig said prediction markets serve an important function in the United States and stressed the need for clearer guardrails.
The forthcoming rulemaking and guidance are expected to define the boundaries between federally regulated derivatives and state-level gambling enforcement.
