Catenaa, Wednesday, February 25, 2026-Former BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes outlined two scenarios that could spark a major crypto rally, tying potential upside in Bitcoin to a large wave of Treasury liquidity he says is poised to hit U.S. markets.
Hayes said a roughly $572 billion surge in Treasury liquidity from Washington could flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, driving renewed demand for Bitcoin.
He positioned one scenario where liquidity boosts technical buying pressure, lifting Bitcoin prices from current levels after recent consolidation. The alternate path involves slower inflows that gradually restore investor confidence across digital assets and broader markets.
The analysis comes amid ongoing debate among traders and macro strategists about the impact of fiscal policy on risk assets, with some market watchers already looking for signs of renewed capital rotation out of safer holdings.
Bitcoin has faced headwinds in recent weeks, with volatility and sideways price action leading to mixed sentiment among investors. In this environment, Hayes’ focus on sovereign liquidity is gaining attention as traders seek catalysts that could shift the narrative toward accumulation and higher lows.
The proposed liquidity wave could intersect with key economic indicators, including consumer spending, employment data, and credit conditions, potentially amplifying effects across financial markets. Such intersections often influence capital flows into speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Investors will be watching how the macro picture unfolds in the coming weeks, especially as policymakers signal their stance on balancing growth with inflation pressures. Hayes’ scenarios underscore the interplay between fiscal tools and digital asset performance
