Catenaa, Saturday, February 28, 2026- Bitcoin’s current market structure is showing signs of late bear market conditions similar to the 2022 downturn, according to K33 research, suggesting an extended consolidation phase rather than a quick rebound.
K33’s proprietary regime indicator, which factors derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and macro data including the US yield curve, signals striking parallels to September and November 2022, periods near the global market bottom.
The firm warns that such regimes historically produced muted returns and prolonged price stabilization.
Bitcoin has declined roughly 28% since January, with futures open interest falling below 260,000 BTC and funding rates remaining negative for more than 11 consecutive days, reflecting defensive positioning and reduced leverage.
Spot trading volumes have dropped 59% week-over-week, while volatility has normalized, indicating markets are absorbing losses.
Institutional activity also points to caution. CME traders remain largely inactive, and bitcoin exchange-traded products have experienced a 103,113 BTC drawdown from peak holdings since October, though most exposure is retained.
Extreme pessimism is evident in sentiment measures, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently hitting an all-time low of 5, but analysts note such indicators have limited predictive value for rebounds.
