Catenaa, Thursday, March 12, 2026- Bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds have shown sharply diverging investor flows since the Iran war erupted late last month, according to analysts at JPMorgan, signaling a shift in how investors position between the two assets during geopolitical uncertainty.
Analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, recorded outflows equal to about 2.7% of its assets under management since Feb. 27. Over the same period, the largest spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, iShares Bitcoin Trust, attracted inflows equal to roughly 1.5% of its assets.
The divergence reversed an earlier trend in which gold funds had led bitcoin funds in year-to-date flows. During the fourth quarter of 2025, investors shifted heavily toward gold as digital asset markets weakened following a correction that began last October.
From October through early 2026, analysts said flows suggested a rotation away from bitcoin and toward gold, particularly among retail investors. During that period IBIT recorded notable withdrawals while GLD drew strong inflows.
Despite the earlier shift, cumulative flows still favor bitcoin over a longer time frame. Since 2024, IBIT has gathered roughly double the total inflows seen by GLD, according to the analysts.
Assets under management between the two funds have also fluctuated. IBIT’s total assets nearly matched GLD in July last year as bitcoin prices surged. The gap widened again after the digital asset market correction reduced bitcoin ETF valuations.
Institutional investor positioning has also changed in recent months. Short interest in IBIT increased while short interest in GLD declined, narrowing the gap between the two exchange-traded funds.
The analysts said the trend indicates hedge funds and institutional investors reduced bitcoin exposure while adding to gold holdings. Even with the increase in short positioning, IBIT’s short interest remains generally lower than GLD’s, reflecting gold’s longer track record and deeper institutional participation.
Options market data also signals more cautious sentiment toward bitcoin. IBIT’s put-to-call open interest ratio moved above GLD’s and has remained higher since November.
A higher put-to-call ratio indicates stronger demand for protective put options relative to call options. Analysts said the pattern suggests investors increasingly seek hedging strategies against potential bitcoin price declines.
The growing options activity around IBIT also points to a broader evolution in bitcoin’s market structure. Institutional investors appear to be moving beyond simple directional bets and adopting more advanced derivatives strategies to manage risk.
Market volatility indicators present a mixed outlook for both assets. Options-implied volatility for GLD has risen faster than for IBIT, suggesting investors anticipate larger price swings in gold.
At the same time, market breadth has weakened more for GLD than IBIT. Analysts cited a rising Hui-Heubel ratio for gold funds, a metric used to gauge liquidity and participation, indicating thinner trading activity across gold ETF markets.
Bitcoin’s volatility profile, meanwhile, has shown signs of compressing in recent months. Analysts said the trend reflects deeper institutional ownership and improving liquidity in the digital asset market.
JPMorgan analysts reiterated a long-term bullish outlook for bitcoin earlier this month, maintaining a price target of $266,000 based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold.
Bitcoin traded near $70,500 at the time of the report, holding roughly flat over the previous 24 hours as investors assessed global risk conditions and shifting fund flows between traditional safe-haven assets and digital alternatives.
