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Quantum Technology Reaches Critical Stage Comparable to Early Transistors

Catenaa, Friday, December 12, 2025- Quantum technology is entering a pivotal stage akin to the early era of transistors, as researchers highlight both the potential and the engineering challenges of scaling systems for practical use.

A joint analysis by scientists from the University of Chicago, MIT, Stanford, University of Innsbruck, and Delft University of Technology assesses six leading quantum hardware platforms, including superconducting qubits, trapped ions, neutral atoms, spin defects, semiconductor quantum dots, and photonic qubits.

The review emphasizes the progress from proof-of-concept experiments to early-stage systems with potential applications in computing, communication, sensing, and simulation.

Despite these advances, the researchers caution that large-scale applications such as complex quantum chemistry simulations, require millions of physical qubits and error rates far beyond current capabilities.

Key hurdles include materials science, fabrication for mass-producible devices, wiring and signal delivery, temperature management, and automated system control.

The authors note parallels with the 1960s “tyranny of numbers” problem faced in early computing, highlighting the need for coordinated engineering and system-level design strategies.

Technology readiness levels (TRLs) vary across platforms, with superconducting qubits showing the highest TRL for computing, neutral atoms for simulation, photonic qubits for networking, and spin defects for sensing.

The researchers stress that current TRLs indicate early system-level demonstrations, not fully mature technology.

The report argues that progress in quantum technology will mirror the historical trajectory of classical electronics, requiring decades of incremental innovation, shared scientific knowledge, and patience before practical, utility-scale systems become feasible.