Catenaa, Sunday, February 15, 2026-A closely watched US jobs report due this week is expected to reveal a deeper slowdown in hiring than previously reported, as federal statisticians prepare unusually large revisions to payroll data.
The January employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to show modest job gains last month while revising down employment growth across much of 2025.
Economists expect the benchmark revisions to significantly reduce prior estimates of hiring, following an earlier indication of a record downward adjustment nearing 1 million jobs through March 2025.
The report was delayed from its original early February release because of a partial government shutdown, adding to anticipation around the data.
Annual benchmarking aligns payroll figures with state unemployment insurance records, a process that often reshapes views of labor market momentum.
Economists already viewed last year’s labor market as cooling, marked by slower hiring and limited layoffs.
The upcoming revisions may point to an even weaker trend, potentially altering how policymakers assess economic conditions.
Federal Reserve officials have offered differing views. Some policymakers have said job growth was likely overstated but remains consistent with a stable economy. Others have argued that revised data may show little to no employment growth last year, raising concerns about labor market health.
Separate indicators have reinforced signs of strain. US employers announced elevated job cuts in January, and job openings fell late last year to their lowest level since 2020.
For January, payrolls are projected to rise by fewer than 75,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold near recent highs. The revisions will not affect the jobless rate, which is based on a separate household survey.
