February 28, 2026 – OPEC+ is preparing to consider a larger-than-expected oil production increase. The move comes after Israel launched a pre-emptive military strike against Iran over the weekend. Delegates confirmed the alliance will discuss the proposal at an emergency meeting on Sunday.
The strike marks a dramatic escalation in Middle East tensions. Explosions were reported across Tehran. Israeli officials described the operation as targeting nuclear and missile infrastructure. The attack effectively ended a brief diplomatic window that opened in February.
Why OPEC+ Is Moving Now
Before the strike, the Saudi-led alliance planned modest output increases starting in April. That timeline now faces urgent revision. A wider regional conflict could disrupt critical oil transit routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Roughly 20% of the global oil supply passes through Hormuz daily. Any blockade or disruption there would trigger an immediate price shock. OPEC+ wants to prevent that scenario by signalling excess supply capacity.
Market Implications
Brent crude rose nearly 3% in early trading. WTI followed with a similar gain. Gold also surged past $5,260 an ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets.
The real risk is not the strike itself. It is Iran’s potential retaliation against U.S. bases or Gulf energy facilities. Tehran has repeatedly warned of such action. That threat now carries far greater weight.
By flooding the market with additional barrels, OPEC+ aims to decouple oil prices from geopolitical chaos. Investors will closely watch Sunday’s announcement. The proposed output boost must be large enough to calm markets already on edge. Failure to act decisively could accelerate a broader economic slowdown.
