Catenaa, Monday, March 16, 2026- Goldman Sachs yesterday raised its short-term oil price forecasts as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten global crude supplies during the ongoing conflict involving Iran and Israel.
The bank said Brent crude prices could average above $100 per barrel in March before easing toward $85 in April if shipping interruptions continue in the strategic waterway that carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.
Analysts at Goldman revised their projections after reassessing how long tanker traffic may remain restricted through the narrow channel connecting the Persian Gulf to global energy markets.
The bank now assumes about 21 days of shipments operating at roughly 10 percent of normal levels followed by a 30-day recovery period. Earlier models assumed a disruption lasting about 10 days.
Global oil markets have reacted sharply since the escalation of hostilities involving Iran in late February. Brent May futures traded near $100 early Friday after briefly climbing to nearly $120 earlier in the week, levels not seen since 2022.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate has also surged during the crisis, rising almost 40 percent since the conflict began.
Energy analysts say the Strait of Hormuz remains the most critical shipping corridor for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Qatar.
Satellite tracking cited by industry researchers shows more than 100 tankers anchored or delayed near the region as companies reassess navigation risks.
Major shipping companies including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have begun rerouting some vessels around the southern tip of Africa.
Those longer routes can add 10 to 14 days to delivery schedules, tightening supply availability in major import markets.
Energy traders say insurance premiums for tankers entering Gulf waters have also surged. Some estimates suggest coverage costs have risen more than 200 percent during the crisis.
The supply shock is forcing governments and energy agencies to consider emergency measures.
The International Energy Agency has coordinated releases from strategic reserves among member states in an effort to stabilize markets.
Officials said hundreds of millions of barrels could be made available if disruptions continue, although physical shipments from those reserves may take weeks to reach refineries.
The United States has also taken steps to ease supply pressure by granting temporary waivers on sanctions involving certain Russian oil shipments.
Despite those moves, analysts warn that pipeline routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz can replace only a fraction of the disrupted supply.
Estimates suggest roughly 16 million barrels per day could be at risk if tanker traffic remains constrained. Existing pipelines can reroute only several million barrels daily.
Natural gas markets have also reacted to the disruption. Qatar, a major liquefied natural gas exporter, temporarily suspended shipments from some facilities after attacks near regional infrastructure.
Gas prices in Europe and Asia climbed sharply following the move as buyers rushed to secure alternative supplies.
Goldman Sachs warned that sustained energy price increases could ripple through the global economy.
The bank estimates that a 10 percent rise in oil prices typically adds about 0.2 percentage points to US inflation while trimming economic growth slightly.
Higher fuel prices may also complicate monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve, which has been weighing the timing of interest rate cuts.
Some economists say the energy shock could delay potential rate reductions if inflation pressures increase during the spring.
Market participants are also watching how producers respond. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners have limited spare capacity that could be brought online to offset supply losses.
However, analysts say ramping up production could take several weeks and may not fully compensate for prolonged disruptions in the Gulf.
US shale output from the Permian Basin has reached record levels but remains insufficient to replace large-scale export interruptions from Middle Eastern producers.
Goldman Sachs said its baseline scenario assumes the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens during the coming months, allowing crude prices to return toward the low $70 range later this year.
Still, the bank warned that longer disruptions could keep prices elevated through the fourth quarter.
Energy traders and policymakers are closely monitoring the region as tensions continue to threaten one of the world’s most important energy supply routes.
