Catenaa, January 25, 2026 – Fitch Ratings has revised Türkiye’s sovereign credit outlook from “stable” to “positive”, while affirming its long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at BB. The shift reflects improved policy credibility under the current economic team and signs of macroeconomic rebalancing.
The rating agency highlighted Türkiye’s monetary tightening since mid-2023 and a more orthodox policy framework as key factors behind the revised outlook. Under the leadership of Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, interest rates have risen significantly to combat inflation and stabilise the lira.
Fitch acknowledged that inflation remains high, with consumer prices projected to peak in early 2026, but praised authorities for restoring market confidence and rebuilding foreign reserves. Turkey’s external position has also improved, supported by a declining current account deficit and reduced dollarization.
Despite structural challenges such as weak governance indicators, high inflation, and a history of policy reversals, the agency noted that continued commitment to reform could support further positive rating action. Fitch expects GDP growth to moderate to a sustainable pace of 3%–3.5% in the medium term, balancing internal demand and export competitiveness.
Investor sentiment has notably improved recently, reflected in tighter sovereign spreads and increased foreign inflows into Turkish assets. A positive outlook could enhance Turkey’s access to international capital markets on more favourable terms if reforms persist.
Still, Fitch warned that any backtracking on recent policy gains or renewed political interference in monetary matters could derail progress.
The revision signals cautious optimism about Türkiye’s economic trajectory. It positions the country for a possible upgrade if macroeconomic stability and reform momentum continue through 2026.
